Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Findings from EHR Cohorts of the RECOVER Initiative (preprint)

Background Patients who were SARS-CoV-2 infected could suffer from newly incidental conditions in their post-acute infection period. These conditions, denoted as the post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), are highly heterogeneous and involve a diverse set of organ systems. Limited studies have investigated the predictability of these conditions and their associated risk factors. Method In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated two large-scale PCORnet clinical research networks, INSIGHT and OneFlorida+, including 11 million patients in the New York City area and 16.8 million patients from Florida, to develop machine learning prediction models for those who are at risk for newly incident PASC and to identify factors associated with newly incident PASC conditions. Adult patients aged  20 with SARS-CoV-2 infection and without recorded infection between March 1st, 2020, and November 30th, 2021, were used for identifying associated factors with incident PASC after removing background associations. The predictive models were developed on infected adults. Results We find several incident PASC, e.g., malnutrition, COPD, dementia, and acute kidney failure, were associated with severe acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined by hospitalization and ICU stay. Older age and extremes of weight were also associated with these incident conditions. These conditions were better predicted (C-index >0.8). Moderately predictable conditions included diabetes and thromboembolic disease (C-index 0.7-0.8). These were associated with a wider variety of baseline conditions. Less predictable conditions included fatigue, anxiety, sleep disorders, and depression (C-index around 0.6). Conclusions This observational study suggests that a set of likely risk factors for different PASC conditions were identifiable from EHRs, predictability of different PASC conditions was heterogeneous, and using machine learning-based predictive models might help in identifying patients who were at risk of developing incident PASC. 

Urine-based multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS (preprint)

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition during critical illness, is a common complication of COVID-19. It can originate from various disease etiologies, including severe infections, major injury, or inhalation of irritants. ARDS poses substantial clinical challenges due to a lack of etiology-specific therapies, multisystem involvement, and heterogeneous, poor patient outcomes. A molecular comparison of ARDS groups holds the potential to reveal common and distinct mechanisms underlying ARDS pathogenesis. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of urine-based metabolomics and proteomics profiles from COVID-19 ARDS patients (n = 42) and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS patients (n = 17). The comparison of these ARDS etiologies identified 150 metabolites and 70 proteins that were differentially abundant between the two groups. Based on these findings, we interrogated the interplay of cell adhesion/extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis through a multi-omic network approach. Moreover, we identified a proteomic signature associated with mortality in COVID-19 ARDS patients, which contained several proteins that had previously been implicated in clinical manifestations frequently linked with ARDS pathogenesis. In summary, our results provide evidence for significant molecular differences in ARDS patients from different etiologies and a potential synergy of extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis. The proteomic mortality signature should be further investigated in future studies to develop prediction models for COVID-19 patient outcomes.

Machine Learning for Identifying Data-Driven Subphenotypes of Incident Post-Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection Conditions with Large Scale Electronic Health Records: Findings from the RECOVER Initiative (preprint)

The post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) refers to a broad spectrum of symptoms and signs that are persistent, exacerbated, or newly incident in the post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection period of COVID-19 patients. Most studies have examined these conditions individually without providing concluding evidence on co-occurring conditions. To answer this question, this study leveraged electronic health records (EHRs) from two large clinical research networks from the national Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet) and investigated patients’ newly incident diagnoses that appeared within 30 to 180 days after a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Through machine learning, we identified four reproducible subphenotypes of PASC dominated by blood and circulatory system, respiratory, musculoskeletal and nervous system, and digestive system problems, respectively. We also demonstrated that these subphenotypes were associated with distinct patterns of patient demographics, underlying conditions present prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection, acute infection phase severity, and use of new medications in the post-acute period. Our study provides novel insights into the heterogeneity of PASC and can inform stratified decision-making in the treatment of COVID-19 patients with PASC conditions.

Understanding Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection through Data-Driven Analysis with Longitudinal Electronic Health Records: Findings from the RECOVER Initiative (preprint)

Recent studies have investigated post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) using real-world patient data such as electronic health records (EHR). Prior studies have typically been conducted on patient cohorts with small sample sizes 1 or specific patient populations 2,3 limiting generalizability. This study aims to characterize PASC using the EHR data warehouses from two large national patient-centered clinical research networks (PCORnet), INSIGHT and OneFlorida+, which include 11 million patients in New York City (NYC) and 16.8 million patients in Florida respectively. With a high-throughput causal inference pipeline using high-dimensional inverse propensity score adjustment, we identified a broad list of diagnoses and medications with significantly higher incidence 30-180 days after the laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to non-infected patients. We found more PASC diagnoses and a higher risk of PASC in NYC than in Florida, which highlights the heterogeneity of PASC in different populations.

Multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS (preprint)

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition characterized by hypoxemia and poor lung compliance, is associated with high mortality. ARDS induced by COVID-19 has similar clinical presentations and pathological manifestations as non-COVID-19 ARDS. However, COVID-19 ARDS is associated with a more protracted inflammatory respiratory failure compared to traditional ARDS. Therefore, a comprehensive molecular comparison of ARDS of different etiologies groups may pave the way for more specific clinical interventions. Methods and Findings: In this study, we compared COVID-19 ARDS (n=43) and bacterial sepsis-induced (non-COVID-19) ARDS (n=24) using multi-omic plasma profiles covering 663 metabolites, 1,051 lipids, and 266 proteins. To address both between- and within- ARDS group variabilities we followed two approaches. First, we identified 706 molecules differently abundant between the two ARDS etiologies, revealing more than 40 biological processes differently regulated between the two groups. From these processes, we assembled a cascade of therapeutically relevant pathways downstream of sphingosine metabolism. The analysis suggests a possible overactivation of arginine metabolism involved in long-term sequelae of ARDS and highlights the potential of JAK inhibitors to improve outcomes in bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS. The second part of our study involved the comparison of the two ARDS groups with respect to clinical manifestations. Using a data-driven multi-omic network, we identified signatures of acute kidney injury (AKI) and thrombocytosis within each ARDS group. The AKI-associated network implicated mitochondrial dysregulation which might lead to post-ARDS renal-sequalae. The thrombocytosis-associated network hinted at a synergy between prothrombotic processes, namely IL-17, MAPK, TNF signaling pathways, and cell adhesion molecules. Thus, we speculate that combination therapy targeting two or more of these processes may ameliorate thrombocytosis-mediated hypercoagulation. Conclusion: We present a first comprehensive molecular characterization of differences between two ARDS etiologies: COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis. Further investigation into the identified pathways will lead to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes, potentially enabling novel therapeutic interventions.

Epigenetic Memory of COVID-19 in Innate Immune Cells and Their Progenitors (preprint)

Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by systemic inflammation and can result in protracted symptoms. Robust systemic inflammation may trigger persistent changes in hematopoietic cells and innate immune memory through epigenetic mechanisms. We reveal that rare circulating hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPC), enriched from human blood, match the diversity of HSPC in bone marrow, enabling investigation of hematopoiesis and HSPC epigenomics. Following COVID-19, HSPC retain epigenomic alterations that are conveyed, through differentiation, to progeny innate immune cells. Epigenomic changes vary with disease severity, persist for months to a year, and are associated with increased myeloid cell differentiation and inflammatory or antiviral programs. Epigenetic reprogramming of HSPC may underly altered immune function following infection and be broadly relevant, especially for millions of COVID-19 survivors.

Integrative Metabolomic and Proteomic Signatures Define Clinical Outcomes in Severe COVID-19 (preprint)

The novel coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged global healthcare with previously unseen levels of morbidity and mortality. To date, methods to predict the clinical course, which ranges from the asymptomatic carrier to the critically ill patient in devastating multi-system organ failure, have yet to be identified. In this study, we performed large-scale integrative multi-omics analyses of serum obtained from COVID-19 patients with the goal of uncovering novel pathogenic complexities of this disease and identifying molecular signatures that predict clinical outcomes. We assembled a novel network of protein-metabolite interactions in COVID-19 patients through targeted metabolomic and proteomic profiling of serum samples in 330 COVID-19 patients compared to 97 non-COVID, hospitalized controls. Our network identified distinct protein-metabolite cross talk related to immune modulation, energy and nucleotide metabolism, vascular homeostasis, and collagen catabolism. Additionally, our data linked multiple proteins and metabolites to clinical indices associated with long-term mortality and morbidity, such as acute kidney injury. Finally, we developed a novel composite outcome measure for COVID-19 disease severity and created a clinical prediction model based on the metabolomics data. The model predicts severe disease with a concordance index of around 0.69, and furthermore shows high predictive power of 0.83-0.93 in two previously published, independent datasets.

The maladaptive vascular response in COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome and recovery (preprint)

ABSTRACT Vascular injury is a menacing element of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) pathogenesis. To better understand the role of vascular injury in COVID-19 ARDS, we used lung autopsy immunohistochemistry and blood proteomics from COVID-19 subjects at distinct timepoints in disease pathogenesis, including a hospitalized cohort at risk of ARDS development (“ at risk” , N=59), an intensive care unit cohort with ARDS ( “ARDS ”, N=31), and a cohort recovering from ARDS (“ recovery ”, N=12). COVID-19 ARDS lung autopsy tissue revealed an association between vascular injury and platelet-rich microthrombi. This link guided the derivation of a protein signature in the at risk cohort characterized by lower expression of vascular proteins in subjects who died, an early signal of vascular limitation termed the maladaptive vascular response . These findings were replicated in COVID-19 ARDS subjects, as well as when bacterial and influenza ARDS patients (N=29) were considered, hinting at a common final pathway of vascular injury that is more disease (ARDS) then cause (COVID-19) specific, and may be related to vascular cell death. Among recovery subjects, our vascular signature identified patients with good functional recovery one year later. This vascular injury signature could be used to identify ARDS patients most likely to benefit from vascular targeted therapies.

Novel clinical subphenotypes in COVID-19: derivation, validation, prediction, temporal patterns, and interaction with social determinants of health (preprint)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is heterogeneous and our understanding of the biological mechanisms of host response to the novel viral infection remains limited. Identification of meaningful clinical subphenotypes may benefit pathophysiological study, clinical practice, and clinical trials. Here, our aim was to derive and validate COVID-19 subphenotypes using machine learning and routinely collected clinical data, assess temporal patterns of these subphenotypes during the pandemic course, and examine their interaction with social determinants of health (SDoH). We retrospectively analyzed 14418 COVID-19 patients in five major medical centers in New York City (NYC), between March 1 and June 12, 2020. Using clustering analysis, four biologically distinct subphenotypes were derived in the development cohort (N = 8199). Importantly, the identified subphenotypes were highly predictive of clinical outcomes (especially 60-day mortality). Sensitivity analyses in the development cohort, and re-derivation and prediction in the internal (N = 3519) and external (N = 3519) validation cohorts confirmed the reproducibility and usability of the subphenotypes. Further analyses showed varying subphenotype prevalence across the peak of the outbreak in NYC. We also found that SDoH specifically influenced mortality outcome in Subphenotype IV, which is associated with older age, worse clinical manifestation, and high comorbidity burden. Our findings may lead to a better understanding of how COVID-19 causes disease in different populations and potentially benefit clinical trial development. The temporal patterns and SDoH implications of the subphenotypes may add new insights to health policy to reduce social disparity in the pandemic.